Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 15.531899 18.873131 22.572615 26.947073 31.951936 37.472944 43.996602
2025-11-02 10.436621 14.671251 19.874163 26.624126 35.029438 45.029235 57.693537
2025-11-09 7.768891 12.300424 18.345992 26.756429 37.888070 51.842277 70.353275
2025-11-16 5.927732 10.466541 16.983435 26.608686 40.007761 57.524948 81.621982
2025-11-23 4.471461 8.799282 15.471540 25.892681 41.078346 61.681586 90.928478
2025-11-30 3.731949 8.061003 15.145478 26.723942 44.217095 68.642464 104.153870
2025-12-07 2.926520 7.005975 14.125363 26.326220 45.452947 72.939162 113.855445
2025-12-14 2.402562 6.329661 13.595462 26.579564 47.592850 78.536172 125.517434
2025-12-21 1.789979 5.303804 12.274976 25.352268 47.294620 80.497119 132.015820
2025-12-28 1.522500 4.943438 12.099235 26.012054 49.973147 86.938580 145.178689
2026-01-04 1.266293 4.533232 11.754335 26.314591 52.052797 92.524916 157.248536
2026-01-11 1.071914 4.217869 11.543483 26.819044 54.467843 98.694523 170.366397
2026-01-18 0.908361 3.954417 11.443316 27.602945 57.553512 106.281280 186.282899
2026-01-25 0.699197 3.475410 10.789463 27.255843 58.668850 110.828697 197.804938
2026-02-01 0.557903 3.145067 10.407631 27.389465 60.616008 116.769148 211.658617
2026-02-08 0.432669 2.802920 9.922674 27.238950 62.006307 121.818171 224.244071
2026-02-15 0.314590 2.409227 9.213307 26.509785 62.240044 124.910020 233.781356
2026-02-22 0.266481 2.291664 9.222780 27.356311 65.504437 133.240525 251.978585
2026-03-01 0.197020 2.013066 8.710566 26.951299 66.299072 137.341743 263.404499
2026-03-08 0.155439 1.848153 8.496139 27.209290 68.402129 143.775897 278.825692
2026-03-15 0.100479 1.527618 7.701752 25.959388 67.362737 144.604595 284.945823
2026-03-22 0.082148 1.446644 7.682440 26.631357 70.302314 152.628257 303.325147
2026-03-29 0.063523 1.335665 7.529346 26.939456 72.489073 159.355685 319.677444